As the House and Senate continue budget negotiations, we decided to check in with our Education Insiders to weigh in on the timing and likelihood of federal policy and budget changes. Remember: this is not a broad-based survey, but rather a highly-curated list of policymakers and influencers who are close to the action in Washington.
Once again, there was unanimous consensus that Congress would not pass legislation to eliminate the Education Department. This comes just days after U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon’s confirmation by a 51-45 party line vote.
That doesn’t mean that the White House is likely to pull back from its efforts to shutter ED. The Wall Street Journal reported that a long-awaited executive order to dismantle ED is imminent, and a leaked draft of the EO directs McMahon to “take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Education Department.” But it does mean that the Trump administration’s efforts will likely have to comport with existing statutory structures.
You can read my initial take on the implications of eliminating, or substantially restructuring ED, here.
Meanwhile, the House Education and Workforce Committee has been directed to cut at least $330 billion over the next 10 years. So where will the cuts come from? Our Insiders shared their takes on what is most likely to make its way into the budget reconciliation process, which requires only a simple majority in the Senate (more on that here) to pass.
- 100% of Insiders believe that the SAVE plan will be repealed in favor of a new student loan repayment plan.
- Additionally, 87% of Insiders believe that Congress will seek to adjust student loan limits.
- 73% of Insiders said that institutional risk-sharing for non-repayment balances will be included–creating a new form of accountability that will put institutions on the hook for loans not repaid by their learners.
- 67% of Insiders believe that Congress will move to repeal regulations aimed at for-profit institutions (e.g., 90/10 and/or Gainful Employment) and 27% said budget reconciliation would include codifying the “bundled services safe harbor” related to the ban on incentive compensation through budget reconciliation.
This underscores the seriousness in which House Republicans are seeking to pass key elements of the College Cost Reduction Act (H.R. 6951), which was introduced last year by then Chairwoman Virginia Foxx (R-NC).
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the passage of the CCRA—which focuses on college transparency, accountability, and affordability issues—would save the federal government an estimated $180 billion.
Interestingly, Insider confidence in the passage of “Short-Term Pell” this Congress is still significant—but may be waning. In January, 83% of Insiders thought it would pass. In our latest survey, the percentage of Insiders who expect passage of a short-term or workforce Pell law within the next two years dropped to 63%.
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