On January 31, we made reference to rumors, also reported by the Wall Street Journal, that President Trump plans to sign an executive order directing Education Secretary Nominee Linda McMahon to develop a plan to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education and “return education to the states.”

Why it matters: While such a move aligns with President Trump’s long-standing campaign promise to eliminate the Department of Education, the process — should such an order be issued — is far from straightforward. Eliminating a federal department requires congressional approval, and the idea has historically faced steep political and legal hurdles.

The big picture: Its important to bear in mind that “eliminating” or substantially restructuring the Department’s functions is different from eliminating the functions themselves. Like most federal agencies, the Department of Education (ED) is charged with implementing an array of laws and programs. These laws, in many cases, pre-date the existence of the Department itself and many were implemented by other agencies before legislation was passed to establish the Department in 1979.

Eliminating ED doesn’t mean that a funding stream like Title I goes away or that the statutory requirements associated with IDEA or the Higher Education Act go away either. In the same way that eliminating the existence of the agency requires congressional action, changing the thrust of those laws requires an act of Congress as well.

What’s more likely? In addition to increased state and local flexibility, look for movement of programs to other agencies (e.g., FSA could be shifted to the Treasury Department, workforce training initiatives might move to the Department of Labor) in pursuit of greater efficiency and improved outcomes.

Rethinking the organization of the federal government isn’t necessarily new or novel. Recall that many of the functions and subagencies within the Department of Homeland Security—including the U.S. Coast Guard, which fell under the Department of Transportation from 1967-2003—were housed elsewhere prior to the establishment of DHS in 2002.

Of note: Shifts in how and whether the Department chooses to flex its regulatory muscles in states and districts has vacillated dramatically over the years. Remember the Obama Administration’s waiver “policy”?

Regardless of governance, we should expect maximum use of the Administration’s authority to grant state flexibility under the laws that the Department of Education is charged with implementing.

What they’re saying: In our latest Education Insider survey, 89% of Insiders predicted that Congress would not pass legislation to “eliminate” the Department. But that may change. In our next survey, we’ll learn whether an E.O. — if issued — might alter the political calculus.

Worth noting: last week, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) reintroduced a bill to abolish the Department by 2026, echoing legislation he first proposed in 2017.

The W/A team is closely monitoring the evolving federal education landscape. Stay tuned for more updates, and please reach out with any questions.