The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s (NSC) updated enrollment data, released January 23, paint a far more encouraging picture about the state of postsecondary enrollment than previously expected.

Catch up quick: On January 13, NSC shared in a statement that researchers had identified a methodological error in which some freshman enrollments were mislabeled as dual enrollees. Because of this error, NSC’s early freshmen enrollment data set and Special Analysis (released in October and December 2024, respectively) inaccurately depicted a significant decline in freshmen enrollment year-over-year.

Key findings from the updated data:
  • Postsecondary enrollment has surpassed prepandemic levels—but just barely (+0.4% from 2019). Total postsecondary enrollment for this coming fall is also up 4.5%, with gains for both undergraduate (+4.7%) and graduate (+3.3%) enrollment YOY.
  • Freshmen enrollment overall has risen 5.5% compared to this time last year, a reversal of previously reported data. Enrollment amongst 18-year-old freshmen—the subgroup of freshmen likely to be graduating high school this spring and immediately entering college–is also up (+3.4%).
  • Gains in freshmen enrollment are reflected across all races and ethnicities. The strongest gains were seen amongst Asian (+6%), Hispanic (+5.1%), and Black (+3.5%) students. White students also experienced increased enrollment, but of a less significant degree (0.9%).
  • Public four-year institutions across all selectivity are seeing increased enrollment, with “less selective” institutions garnering the highest gains (+5%). Private four-year institutions, on the other hand, saw mixed enrollment changes (+5.7 for “less selective” and -2.5% for “highly selective” private nonprofit four-year schools).
  • Interestingly, public two-year institutions (AKA, community colleges) with a high vocational program focus are seeing double-digit enrollment gains (+13.6%) for a second straight year, and now make up nearly one-fifth (19.5%) of all public two-year enrollment.
  • Undergraduate certificate programs are seeing their fourth consecutive year of enrollment growth, up 9.9% since last year and 28.5% higher than in 2019. Growth in this area is particularly notable for public two-year institutions (+9.2%), but is being seen across all institution types.
  • Also of note, community colleges serving a high share of Pell grant recipients are experiencing the greatest growth (+8.6), a rate over twice as high as that of low Pell-serving community colleges (+3.5%). However, among public four-year institutions, those that serve the lowest share of Pell grant recipients are showing the most significant enrollment growth (+3.5%).

Why it matters: These trends are a promising snapshot of young people’s continued interest in pursuing higher education, consistent with recent data from Common App that showed 5% YOY growth in distinct first-year applicants and 7% growth in total application volume.

Additionally, increased favor toward two-year schools, certificates, and vocational programs is a clear indication that people are looking for faster, cheaper, and more career-oriented postsecondary pathways. With this in mind—and given the Trump administration’s potential focus on apprenticeships and industry credentials—colleges may modernize their offerings (i.e., micro-pathways such as those adopted in Montana, expanded dual enrollment opportunities, and other short-term credentials) to retain relevancy and meet the needs of all learners. [Open Campus; Inside Higher Ed]