When it comes to education policy and funding, big changes are in the works. And recently, the nature and scope of those changes came further into focus.
- Last month, we reported on the House version of budget reconciliation (H.R. 1 – “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”).
- On May 2, FY2026 appropriations process began in earnest, with President Trump’s “skinny budget” request which called for a reduction in the maximum Pell grant amount and consolidation of K-12 funding streams.
- On June 10, the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee shared its reconciliation proposal.
Against that backdrop, it’s important to remember that the Trump administration’s budget proposal is just that: a proposal. No one really expects a cut to max Pell, and the impact of consolidation of funds will ultimately play out at the state level—which is where most of the action tends to be in the K-12 context anyway. Further, while we now have both the House and Senate’s version of budget reconciliation, we don’t yet know which education provisions will be sent to the President’s desk for signature.
So, how should you be forecasting whether and which of the many highly-consequential policy proposals before Congress will become law?
To help you cut through the noise, we checked in with our Education Insiders (a curated list of policymakers and influencers who are close to the action in Washington) to get their take. (It should be noted that our Insiders took the survey after the House version was passed and before the Senate HELP proposal was released.)
Timing
President Trump set a deadline of July 4, 2025 for enacting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law. 60% of our Insiders believe that Congress will pass the budget reconciliation legislation by the end of July 2025, before its August recess.
Workforce Pell
73% believe that the final passed legislation will include a version of Workforce Pell (AKA “Short-term Pell”), which was also included in the Senate version.
College Risk Sharing
64% said that Congress would not pass the proposal for risk sharing, which would put institutions “on the hook” for a portion of unpaid student loan debts. The House-passed version includes risk sharing, but the Senate proposal released earlier this week does not.
Pell Eligibility
One of the more controversial components of the House-passed bill was a change in the requirements for full-time Pell eligibility (from 12 credit hours per semester to 30 credit hours per year). 50% of Insiders believed that the proposal would pass with changes to the House version. Others were split on whether the changes would pass untouched or be excluded entirely from the final version. The Senate HELP proposal did not include the House changes.
School Choice
The House-passed version of the OBBBA included the text of the Education Choice for Children Act (ECCA) which would create an expansive federal tax credit scholarship program. 65% of Insiders believe that the ECCA language will pass (likely with changes from the House-passed version). We do not yet know if the Senate proposal will include ECCA language.
Though budget reconciliation continues to dominate policy conversations on the Hill, it’s also important to keep an eye on the FY2026 appropriations process which is underway and will demand an increasing share of Congressional attention in the coming few months. The House Appropriations Committee is not set to consider the majority of federal education program spending until late July, but Insiders are already skeptical. 47% think that Congress will pass a full-year continuing resolution (CR) for all federal programs (i.e., federal funding will remain at FY 2025 levels for FY 2026).
In the days and weeks to come, our team will continue to track what’s happening in Washington and around the states. Got questions? Get in touch.
