According to a recent survey of more than 1,500 high school counselors, students are less certain about attending college than ever before:

  • 63% of public school counselors reported that there has been a shift in students’ view of the necessity of a college degree since the pandemic, and more than half (51%) say fewer students are planning to attend college after high school.
  • The survey also revealed why students are opting out of traditional college pathways. Public school counselors reported affordability (53%), uncertainty about their career path (42%), and concerns about the value of a college degree (41%) as the top drivers of students’ choice to not attend college.

This isn’t surprising. College enrollment has been declining for years. Downward trends were exacerbated by the pandemic, and are expected to worsen in the aftermath of the 2024-25 “Better FAFSA” debacle. Confidence in the value of a degree—and higher education in general—has also eroded over the last decade, waxing and waning in favorability between age groups, genders, political parties, and more. [USA Today; The Wall Street Journal, subscription model]

The bottom line: Young people want faster, more affordable methods of entering the workforce; they want to make money to sustain themselves and their families without accumulating major debt. Young people want to build their lives and careers on their own time and terms.

What’s Plan B?

Non-degree pathways—apprenticeships, boot camps, certificates, industry/trade certifications, and professional licenses—are piquing the interest of Gen Zers as an alternative to college. The interest is so prevalent that it has earned the generation nicknames like the “microcredential generation” and “toolbelt generation.” [Inside Higher Ed; NPR]

A 2023 survey commissioned by American Student Assistance (ASA) and Jobs for the Future (JFF) found that high school graduates on a non-degree pathway (AKA, “pathway youth”) were more likely to be employed, with 65% report working part- or full-time, compared to 51% of non-pathway youth. 

A separate analysis by JFF found that 389,860 young people ages 16-24 started a Registered Apprenticeship (RA) program between 2010-2020, with the number of young apprentices rising steadily year-over-year (aside from 2019-2020 due to the onset of the pandemic).

Young people trust that these non-degree pathways are effective and lead to employment opportunities. 70% of pathway youth are confident in their post-high school plans, 71% felt prepared for the workforce, and 9 in 10 say they are satisfied with the pathway they are pursuing or pursued. [eSchool News]

But a lack of overall information on non-degree pathways and skills-based hiring being relatively uncharted territory for employers is hindering Gen Zer’s success, and making it more difficult for counselors to provide the appropriate level of support.

Students and counselors need more information: Nearly 1 in 3 non-college youth (32%) report lacking confidence in knowing the steps they need to take to access the workforce or postsecondary opportunities, and two-thirds (64%) of non-pathway youth say they would have considered a non-degree pathway if they knew more about them.

Schools don’t have many resources to share, though: nearly 50% of educators say their high school isn’t providing enough information about non-degree pathways to students. Educators also don’t feel as confident in the pathways as Gen Zers do; 35% say they believe employers favor applicants with college degrees and one-third (33%) feel they don’t know how to assess the quality of a non-degree pathway.

The lack of information—and thus lack of encouragement—from their schools pushes Gen Zers to explore non-degree pathway options on their own.

The way forward: Improving data collection and dissemination of information on non-degree pathways is critical, and several organizations are stepping up to directly address or assist states with closing the information gaps. 

  • In July, ASA and JFF launched a new $25 million initiative to help young people (ages 16-24) find, evaluate, access, and pay for high-quality education and training programs. Apprenticeships for America, a leading apprenticeship advocacy and practitioner network, is working to highlight and address barriers to scaling non-degree pathways. And, National Council of State Legislatures and National Skills Coalition developed policy principles to help guide state policymakers in improving data collection for non-degree credentials and programs. 

Young people are ready for alternatives to college, but they can’t navigate these pathways alone. To help them succeed, we have to adapt our policy infrastructure and career guidance to include the non-degree options reshaping the future of work.