We launched our first Education Insider survey in 2009. Much of the credit for the idea goes to W/A alum John Bailey, who saw a need for better insight into education policymaking as both a White House advisor and as a grant maker designing strategies that were impacted by (or hoped to impact) what happened in Washington and state capitols.
Over the years, we’ve worked to perfect the methodology, and it has proven fairly accurate. The accuracy of our approach is grounded in the fact that on any given issue, there are only a handful of individuals who are proximate to—or in a position to impact—decision-making. Of course, that doesn’t stop people in and around the policy world from prognosticating.
Larger surveys do a bad job of differentiating signal from noise. Our aim is to curate relatively small lists of people who are in the know and report on their perspectives rather than the “wisdom” of the crowd. In December 2020, Insiders correctly predicted that the Biden administration would take action on borrower defense to repayment and student loan forgiveness within the first six months, and Gainful Employment within the first year.
We always ensure confidentiality. Insiders respond to our surveys because they care about transparency and the flow of information within our field. Policymakers also often work in silos, so our reporting can be helpful to them as well. We take a similar approach to research conducted on behalf of W/A clients.
In Whiteboard Notes, we previewed our latest Education Insider survey, which examines the likelihood of policy shifts under the Trump administration and incoming Republican-led Congress. Now, we’re sharing the full results.
U.S. Department of Education to Stay
Despite campaign rhetoric about eliminating the Department of Education, 89% of Insiders believe Congress will not pass legislation to abolish the agency. As one respondent noted, “The House might be able to pass a bill, but it would surely die in the Senate.”
Another Insider offered a more nuanced take: “It won’t entirely be abolished. It will be a bill to break up things, move them around, potentially a name change… but revamped significantly.” This suggests we’re more likely to see efforts to reorganize and streamline the Department’s functions rather than eliminate it entirely.
K-12 Funding Expected to Remain Stable Despite Budget Pressures
Concerns about major cuts to foundational K-12 funding streams appear similarly overblown. An overwhelming 94% of Insiders predict Congress will not significantly cut Title I funding. For context, while House Republicans drafted an appropriations bill to cut Title I by $14.7 billion in fiscal year 2024, the final funding agreement actually included a small increase (+$20 million).
Similarly, 89% believe IDEA funding will remain stable or even increase. As one Insider observed, “If anything is going to get an increase it would be IDEA.” Another added that “the Republicans appreciate the local political salience of IDEA more than the Democrats.”
Workforce Pell and College Cost Reform Show Promise for Bipartisan Action
The survey suggests more meaningful change may come in higher education policy. A strong majority (83%) of Insiders believe Congress will pass and enact short-term Pell grant legislation this session, though some caution that budget constraints could complicate the path forward.
Additionally, 59% expect elements of the College Cost Reduction Act to be included in budget reconciliation. The most likely provisions to advance according to Insiders:
- Adjusting federal student loan limits
- Creating a standard student loan repayment plan
- Implementing institutional risk-sharing requirements
However, Insiders noted that many provisions may face challenges under the Byrd Rule, which restricts what can be included in budget reconciliation.
States Expected to Lead Education Innovation in 2025
The survey results suggest 2025 will likely bring measured, targeted policy changes rather than wholesale transformation of the education landscape. While the rhetoric around eliminating the Department of Education or dramatically cutting federal funding may persist, the complex reality of passing major legislation—particularly with slim Congressional majorities—means more incremental change is probable.
As one Insider summarized, “They may try to do some messaging stuff but there isn’t a lot of support for this in either party.” This indicates that the most significant changes may come through administrative action and state-level policy rather than sweeping federal legislation.
