On October 23, National Student Clearinghouse (NCS) released preliminary data on the state of postsecondary enrollment. These data represent over half (51.9%) of all participating institutions, covering an estimated 8.7 million undergraduate and graduate students, and are up to date as of September 26. 

Key Findings

The good news for higher education is that overall undergraduate and graduate enrollment are on the rise (+3% and +2.1%) across all institution types, but especially private for-profit four-year, public two-year, and primarily associate-degree granting baccalaureate (PAB) institutions. Undergraduate and graduate enrollment among students of color has also shown strong growth. White student enrollment is, however, down (-0.6%).

Despite the positive trends around overall enrollment, there are some worry points within the data. Most notably, freshman enrollment is down 5% from this time last year, representing the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020. 

The drop is driven mostly by freshmen ages 18-20 years old, which make up 90% of all freshmen enrollees represented in the data.

  • Freshman enrollment declined across all race and ethnicity groups, particularly of white (-11.4%), Black (-6.1%), and Multiracial (-6.6%) students.
  • Declining freshman enrollment is most pronounced at four-year institutions (-8.5% for publics and -6.5% for private nonprofits), and felt even more significantly by the subsection of four-year schools that serve a high proportion of Pell grant-eligible students (declined by more than 10%).
  • Conversely, community colleges that serve a high proportion of Pell-eligible students have actually seen increased enrollment (+1.2%), but these institutions are underrepresented in these data, according to NCS. Take this finding with a grain of salt for now.

These changes follow the disastrous 2023-24 “Better FAFSA” rollout, which caused a substantial decrease in filings (still down almost 9% from 2022-23), as well as overall demographic trends that suggest the U.S. has reached “peak” volume of high school graduates. [Axios]

Students are still interested in college: The nonprofit Common App compiled end-of-season college applicant data earlier this year. Their report—which analyzed over 9 million applications to 1,000+ member schools from nearly 1.5 million first-year applicants on the Common App platform—ultimately revealed increased desire to attend college among first-year applicants, who would have enrolled for the fall 2024 semester.

  • According to the report, the number of first-year applicants grew 7% and the total volume of applications increased 11% between 2022-23 and 2023-24.
  • There was also an 11% increase in applicants identifying as an underrepresented minority—with fastest growth among American Indian or Alaska Native (15%), Latinx (12%) and Black or African American (10%) applicants.
  • Finally, the number of applicants reporting eligibility for a Common App fee waiver (which is correlated with eligibility for Pell grants and other federal and state public assistance programs for low income families) increased at four times the rate of students not reporting fee waiver eligibility (14% vs. 3%).

Reality check: The decline in freshman enrollment is concerning. Whether these data are surprising or not, the alarm bell has been rung—now, it’s time for action.

Here’s what experts are saying:

  • Jenny Rickard, CEO, Common App
    “These new enrollment numbers from NSC are not due to a lack of interest from students, but more likely caused by an admissions year wrought with uncertainty, especially due to the issues around the FAFSA and other affordability concerns. I encourage us all to explore more of these preliminary trends… We all have work to do to continue to help students through the college enrollment ‘system,’ which includes not only making sure that they feel worthy and welcome on a college campus, but also that they have the ability to afford those opportunities.”
  • Kim Cook, CEO, National College Attainment Network (NCAN)
    “These preliminary low numbers are cause for concern for the high school class of 2024 because when high school graduates do not make a timely postsecondary enrollment, their odds of ever completing a degree drop substantially. This class was affected by a troubled FAFSA rollout as well as the Supreme Court decision banning race-conscious admissions. These data must be a call to action – to continue efforts to reach the high school class of 2024 to enroll this spring and to launch the 2025-26 FAFSA with full functionality by December 1 to fully realize the promise of a simplified FAFSA.”
  • Scott Lomas, Chief Strategy Officer, ReUp
    “Not only is the freshman enrollment cliff here, it’s worse than predicted, and while the most selective institutions still have the demand to meet their enrollment goals via traditional students, the vast majority of institutions need to find new audiences. While the data suggest that overall enrollment trended up this fall, that is primarily a rebound toward pre-pandemic enrollment levels. The adult undergraduate market continues to be dominated by large institutions which invest significantly in marketing, and other institutions must find a way to crack into this non-traditional market.”